UK Energy Bills Just Fell. Here's Why July Is Going to Hurt.

April's energy price cap arrived today with the promised £117 reduction, bringing the typical dual-fuel bill to £1,641. The saving is real and welcome — but the context is harder to celebrate.

April's cap was set in February — before the Iran war. It locked in months of falling wholesale prices. The sustained spike since late February is already being absorbed into the July calculation, and the relief households feel today is unlikely to last the season. For the full story on what triggered the spike, see our piece on the night gas prices surged.

Cornwall Insight's July forecast stands at £1,973, though recent estimates have moderated to £1,837–£1,929. Either figure represents a significant reversal of today's relief. At the upper end, July would be the highest price cap since the post-Ukraine peak in 2023.

Why this April reduction is probably the last good news for a while

This April reduction is almost certainly the last downward move for some time. The wholesale gas market absorbed a significant shock in late February when the Iran conflict began. Even if that conflict stabilises, Ofgem's cap methodology means the volatility is now baked into the July calculation — there's no mechanism to retroactively remove it if prices ease.

For UK households, the practical implication is that the window between now and July is the last period of relative affordability before another sustained increase. For anyone weighing up plug-in solar, that window is the time to act. Our payback calculator shows exactly what the numbers look like at both cap levels.

What plug-in solar saves at the current and July cap

An 800W plug-in solar kit generating 650kWh annually saves approximately £156/year at the current £1,641 cap. At the July forecast cap, the same generation saves approximately £174/year. If you're on Octopus Agile, the effective saving is higher still. To see which kits are worth buying, visit our best plug-in solar kits guide.