July Energy Price Cap 2026: Forecast at £1,837

The July energy price cap will rise by around 12%, according to the latest Cornwall Insight forecast — lower than the £332 peak estimate from early March, but still significant and unavoidable for UK households.

The revised figure puts the typical dual-fuel bill at approximately £1,837 for July–September — up from the current £1,641. That's roughly £196 more per year, or around £49 per quarter.

The moderation reflects some easing in wholesale gas markets following tentative ceasefire signals. Ofgem won't confirm the final cap until 27 May. The Bank of England has already factored energy price rises into its inflation forecast, projecting CPI at 3.5% in Q3 2026.

What this means for plug-in solar buyers

The BSI product standard is expected in July 2026, meaning UKCA-certified kits should land on shelves at almost exactly the moment July bills arrive — the culmination of the government's March announcement. Higher bills, products finally in retail — the timing is as good as it's likely to get.

An 800W plug-in solar kit generating 650kWh annually saves approximately £156 per year at the current cap. At the July cap rate, that same generation saves more. Use our payback calculator to run the exact numbers for your household. For anyone sitting on the fence, July is the natural decision point — and pairing your kit with Octopus Agile improves the case further.

When will UK energy bills come down?

The market consensus is that further rises are more likely than falls through the rest of 2026. The structural drivers — elevated gas prices, tight storage, geopolitical uncertainty — have not resolved. Households planning to reduce their grid exposure before October have a narrow window to act. See our guide to the best plug-in solar kits to get started.